QUESTIONS NICOLA STURGEON WOULD RATHER AVOID

 

 

INTRODUCTION

In recent months, opinion polls have shown majority support for Scottish independence. Arguably, the change from the previous pro-UK majority, reflects a mixture of differing views on Brexit, ill-feeling amongst some Scots against Boris Johnson and his government, and a perception that Nicola Sturgeon has  better presented the covid pandemic response, even if in practice the measures taken and the results have not been significantly different between Scotland and the UK as a whole. 

 

Those who value Scotland’s place in the UK appreciate that UK prime ministers come and go, and that however each of us voted in the 2016 EU referendum, leaving one wider union hardly justifies leaving another, particularly when the UK is a union we have the closest possible relationship with.

 

If the First Minister gave a full and frank response to some of the big questions relating to the independence issue, I suspect the opinion poll majority would  wane. Indeed, if Nicola Sturgeon was to surprise us with honest and complete answers to each of the questions I pose here, I would be confident that the middle ground of Scottish public opinion would shift back to preferring remaining in the UK, rather than chasing the SNP’s nationalist nirvana.

 

Many of the following questions have been asked before of Nicola Sturgeon in some form or other, but she always finds a way of avoiding giving the full and honest response that Scotland deserves. All each of us can do meanwhile, is to consider what the truth on each of these matters really is:

 

 

10 QUESTIONS THAT NICOLA STURGEON WOULD RATHER NOT ANSWER 

 

(1)Can pursuing a second independence referendum be justified as a

genuine priority in the midst of a worldwide pandemic that has caused, and continues to cause,  so much suffering for Scotland ?

No one expects Nicola Sturgeon to permanently give up on the pursuit of independence, after all it is the SNP’s core objective, literally its reason for being. Yet surely, chasing this objective can be paused for at least the term of the new Scottish parliament starting in May this year. Over the next few years, the pressing challenges will be recovering from the health and economic impacts of the Covid pandemic. To prioritise a second independence referendum at such a time, demonstrates the SNP’s overriding objective will always be put first, even if it costs Scotland dearly.

 

(2) Does the First Minister accept that ‘independence’ is not an all or nothing concept, and that leaving the UK and joining the EU risks  leaving Scotland with less self-determination than we have now?

In the modern age of worldwide financial markets, global trade, and international cooperation on economic, environmental and security issues, there is no such thing as a totally independent nation. Rather, every country has varying degrees of self-determination depending on the alliances they are part of, the degree of devolved power they already have, and the extent of economic prosperity and political influence that allows them to help to shape events rather than merely be a follower.

Scotland has a wide range of powers exercised through the Holyrood parliament, and influences UK policy through the Westminster parliament. Would leaving the UK really deliver Scotland greater self-determination, or would the obsession with breaking up the UK risk diminishing so many of the strengths and benefits of interdependence that Scotland’s current status delivers? In particular, would the many concessions and compromises required to secure EU membership, coming after the inevitable costs and consequences of leaving the UK, leave Scotland genuinely more in control of its own destiny, or would we instead risk having less control over our future than we have now?

 

(3) Why is the UK union such an anathema for the SNP, whilst portraying membership of the European Union as critical to Scottish ‘independence’?

A newly independent Scotland would have to accept the EU’s terms for joining rather than Scotland’s preferences. Old opt-outs would be lost. Maintaining EU financial disciplines and joining in on all their key policies would be essential. How would becoming a new and relatively peripheral EU member, with minimal influence compared to its major long standing and dominant members, and having to commit to the EU’s ever closer political and economic union, genuinely serve the cause of self-determination? 

 

(4) Does Nicola Sturgeon guarantee that leaving the UK will not lead to Scotland facing a decade or more of economic austerity?

The SNP’s own Growth Commission indicated a likely need for a decade of tight financial restrictions to enable Scotland to get its public finances into a sustainable position and to meet EU joining criteria. It avoided calling it austerity by simply assuming the most optimistic growth levels possible. In reality, with the economic starting point now more challenging than ever due to the effects of the pandemic, we would be faced with austerity by any other name, with wide ranging cuts in public spending, substantial tax increases, or more likely a mixture of both. Simply assuming ever higher borrowings ignores the realities of international financial markets assessing the viability of a newly independent country. Meanwhile, why would the EU risk effectively becoming Scotland’s banker of last resort before Scotland’s economy has been restructured to ensure it can meet its own outgoings?

 

(5) Can the goal of Scottish independence justify misleading the people?

The Scotland’s Future White Paper prepared by the SNP before the 2014 independence referendum, is now widely accepted as having knowingly presented an idealised and misleading prospectus for an independent Scotland. Engaging the Scottish Civil Service in the preparation of such a document, when misleading anyone is expressly forbidden under the Civil Service Code, points to a breach of that code, and encouraging such an endeavour would mean the SNP leadership  breached the Ministerial Code. 

Will the First Minister guarantee that any future independence referendum will not repeat the misuse of public resources and politicisation of the Scottish Civil Service that she oversaw in the last independence campaign?

 

(6) Will the First Minister commit to seeking assurances from the EU in advance of a second independence  referendum over the likely terms and timing of any future EU membership?

The case for Scottish independence now puts future membership of the EU front and centre of its justification for leaving the UK. To avoid misleading the people of Scotland about EU membership, will Nicola Sturgeon approach the EU before any referendum to confirm in advance what would be required for us to achieve membership, by when and on what key terms. Non-specific warm words from the EU, or the SNP’s own simplistic assertions will not do as a basis for the most fundamental of changes for our country. 

 

(7) What is your worst broken promise First Minister?

Is it on class sizes, or tackling the attainment gap in education? Or is it about protecting the NHS in Scotland, or meeting waiting targets for medical treatment? Or is it the promise to represent everyone whether they voted for you or not? Or the promise to secure the future of Ferguson shipyard and BiFab engineering, and so deliver two new ferries and a leading role in the wind turbine industry? Or, was it the promise to give us new hospitals that work properly? Or to tackle Scotland’s drug crisis? Or is it the promise to bring us a new kind of politics, when in practice the SNP has brought us scandal after scandal, some ending up in the courts, with numerous resignations and accusations of the worst possible improper behaviour and wrong doing in the uppermost reaches of your party? Or do you believe none of this really counts as long as you keep chasing independence ? 

 

(8) Does the First Minister regret that after 13 years of SNP misrule, the only outcome delivered by the SNP government we can all agree on, is that Scotland is more divided now than ever before?

Nicola Sturgeon has led a government that has been big on bold pronouncements but generally poor on delivery. It is only in stirring grievance and ill-feeling that it truly excels. Does the First Minister accept that this national disunity is the result of her obsession with breaking our country apart?

 

 (9) Will the SNP seek to impose independence on the people of Scotland even if the margin of majority in any future referendum is the slimmest possible at less than one per cent?

The SNP justifies seeking a second referendum because it claims recent opinion polls reflect the ‘settled will’ of the people of Scotland. Yet those polls all have significant percentages either saying they don’t know or will not say. Equally, these polls arguably reflect maximum resentment just now over Brexit and frustrations over the pandemic. How might the balance of opinion settle once Brexit proves not to be the catastrophe the SNP has predicted, and the Covid pandemic health crisis is replaced by the economic reality of needing to build a recovery out of all the damage it has done to Scotland and its people?

 

(10) Does the First Minister believe that turning people against each other can be justified by political ambition?

Nicola Sturgeon has cast herself as the acceptable face of Scottish nationalism. Yet the pretence of the people of Scotland having some kind of moral superiority over our fellow citizens, the constant stirring of a grievance narrative that seeks to divide us rather than bring people together, betrays a nationalist exceptionalism, camouflaged in progressive political sentiment. The SNP’s nationalist dogma drives its pursuit of the breakup of the UK, no matter the economic and social cost for all of us, in Scotland and the rest of the UK. 

Time and time again the First Minister claims the moral high ground, yet what kind of progressive politics is it that needs to turn people against each other to achieve its ends? 

 

A final thought

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon shows every sign of pushing on with the pursuit of independence at whatever cost. While it is less than 7 years since the last referendum, the SNP argues a second independence referendum is justified on the basis of the changed circumstances of Brexit. They say people have the right to change their minds. Yet will that courtesy be extended to the people of Scotland if the SNP should eventually get its way on independence, but then does not deliver the promised idealised outcome? So, one final question for the First Minister would be as follows:

 

In the event a second referendum supports independence, would the First Minister give the people of Scotland a chance to reconsider if circumstances change? 

If a majority is secured for independence in a second referendum, this will likely depend on the SNP leadership’s assertions of the preferential terms they would secure in both a divorce deal with the UK and a new membership deal with the EU. What if in practice the reality offered by the UK and EU proved to be substantially less favourable? If polling showed the majority of people in Scotland judged this a significant change in circumstances and wanted a further vote to express their view, would the First Minister give Scotland a chance to change its mind?